Don't wait for interest rate hikes!

by Norm Rousseau 24. February 2010 09:09

Rate hikes urged for summer

From Herald News Services February 24, 2010

Central Bank - The Bank of Canada should uphold its conditional pledge to keep its key policy rate at 0.25 per cent until July, but should then embark on sharp rate hikes of 50 basis points at every announcement date until mid-2011, says an analysis prepared for the C.D. Howe Institute.

The call for sharp rate increases after June emerged Tuesday, one week before the Bank of Canada releases its latest interest rate statement.

Recent data indicate the Canadian economy likely expanded in the final quarter of 2009 at a faster pace than the central bank expected (four per cent versus 3.3 per cent), and inflation is now closer to the central bank's two per cent preferred target than it previously envisaged.

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Tags: interest rates

Buyers

Mortgage Rule Changes - Not as bad as we expected!

by Norm Rousseau 16. February 2010 09:35

From Reuters

NEW RULES

* Borrowers must qualify for a five-year fixed-rate mortgage, even if they opt for a lower variable rate. Banks and insurers typically assess the borrower's gross debt service ratio -- the cost of financing their home relative to their income -- and their total debt service, which includes total debt payments relative to income. Currently, they use either the fixed-rate, or the greater of the variable rate and the prevailing three-year fixed rate.

* Lower the maximum amount a homeowner can withdraw when refinancing a mortgage to 90 percent from 95 percent of the value of the property. The government wants to encourage home ownership as a savings tool so is limiting this type of financing, which allows borrowers to lower their equity in their home.

* Increase the required down payment to 20 percent from 5 percent for insured mortgages obtained for purchasing speculative housing investments not occupied by the owner. Borrowers buying a property they intend to live in that also includes rental units will not be subject to the 20 percent rule.

* The rules that did not change, despite some speculation they might, were the maximum 35-year amortization period and minimum down payment of 5 percent for regular home buyers who plan to live on their properties.

MORTGAGE INDUSTRY

* Innovation began in Canada's mortgage industry in 2006, including longer amortization periods and higher loan-to-value ratios. Although the number of high-risk, or subprime, mortgages remains low relative to the United States, Ottawa intervened for the first time in 2008 to tighten mortgage insurance rules.

* Canadian law requires banks to obtain mortgage insurance on loans where home buyers make down payments of less than 20 per cent, which are considered high risk. The borrower generally pays for the mortgage premium, which is added to the mortgage payments.

* Most mortgage insurance is provided by the state housing agency, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp, and is backed by the government. The government also backs private mortgage insurers' obligations to lenders, subject to a deductible. (Reporting by Louise Egan, editing by Peter Galloway)

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Tags: mortgage rules

Buyers

You may have waited to long!

by Norm Rousseau 16. February 2010 08:58

OTTAWA -- The federal government is expected to announce new rules Tuesday that would make it more difficult for first-time buyers to enter Canada's hot housing market.

Sources have told The Canadian Press that Finance Minister Jim Flaherty is ready to move on the issue because of concern Canadians may be taking on too much debt.

Economists have advised the minister the best way to protect Canadians is to institute a debt affordability test in order to qualify for a Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation insured mortgage.

Currently, prospective home owners can qualify for a CMHC (Canada Mortgage and Housing Company) insured mortgage if they put at least five per cent down on the cost of a home.

But bank officials say they usually apply a cushion to ensure home buyers have sufficient income to meet payment requirements if floating rates rise, in some cases by more than two percentage points.

Flaherty is expected to make such an income test a condition for acquiring an CMHC insured mortgage.

Another possibility is for the minister to reduce the amortization period from 35 years to 30, which would have the effect of raising monthly payments.

It is believed Flaherty rejected more radical measures to cool the housing market, which has reached record levels in sales and near record levels in average home prices despite the weak economy.

Economists have cautioned the minister against putting on the brakes too strongly. They say raising the minimum downpayment requirement to 10 per cent, one of the suggestions given the minister, could cause a crash in a key mainstay of the fragile economic recovery.

The Bank of Canada has been warning for months that homeowners should ensure they can absorb an increase in their floating rate mortgages once rates start rising, likely as early as this summer.

By the central bank's own stress test calculation, almost one in 10 households would have a debt-service ratio that makes them vulnerable to economic shocks by the middle of 2012 if current trend continue.

In an address written for deputy governor Timothy Lane last month, the bank suggested the government has all the tools it needs to address the problem.

"An array of supervisory and regulatory instruments can be used by the government to restrain a buildup of systemic risks," said notes the address.

"These include capital requirements for institutions, leverage ratios, loan-to-value ratios, terms and conditions for mortgage insurance, and a variety of other measures. These instruments can be targeted to risks to the entire financial system that stem from particular markets or institutions."

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